Many hope a barrel of petrol will go back to a 100 dollar before the end of the year. Their argument is, of course, that the price of 135 dollars per barrel does not reflect the market price triggered by supply and demand but has been caused by financial speculation. In the United States the presidential candidates are trying to surpass one another by cursing the speculators. It is, however, not that simple to estimate the role of speculation on the current oil price. Ivan van de Cloot argues that its role should not be overestimated.