Because of ageing, the ratio of retirees to workers is going to increase steadily, which is going to increase pressure on the public finances and the economy in general in the decades to come. Nevertheless, because of the uncertainty regarding future demographic developments, the exact extend of the problem is unknown. This impedes on a country’s budgetary strategy: how much less are we aloud to spend? How will economic uncertainty be affected and how will that affect investments? In this paper; the Dutch Plan bureau makes an attempt to estimate the role of uncertainty and discuss possible outcomes.

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